I fetch no longer talked to someone on the NFL yet, but I finally feel love any person must demand the league if we can push the convention title games abet a week on account of I deem we all want some beyond in style time to salvage better from the divisional spherical. If this picks column is entirely incoherent, this is on account of my brain is serene making an try to course of all the pieces that took disclose.
After going to the Bengals vs. Titans game on Saturday, I became as soon as rather sure there became as soon as no formula any of the assorted divisional games would top it by formula of enjoyment, but then THEY ALL topped it. By hook or by crook, each and every game became as soon as continuously better than the one before it.
And by the purpose the Payments-Chiefs game went to beyond in style time Sunday evening, I deem I had spit espresso out of my mouth no decrease than three assorted cases, which became as soon as loopy on account of I wasn’t even drinking espresso.
For the first time in playoff history, EVERY GAME CAME DOWN TO THE FINAL PLAY.
Alright, now that now we fetch relived the divisional spherical, let’s fling on to the convention title game picks.
The loopy say in regards to the title games this year is that they are both rematches of in style season games and the teams that WON these games are both underdogs. The 49ers and Bengals went a blended 3-0 against the Rams and Chiefs, but neither team is most in style to preserve finish this week.
I deem the oddsmakers are making an try to confuse me. I’ve spent the past 19 hours making an try to resolve out who I will discover and I’m serene no longer sure. I made my usual picks, but then I flipped from these, then I flopped abet, then my household in Cincinnati known as me and stated they’d disown me if I did no longer discover the Bengals, so then, I had to flip off my cell phone and bury it in my yard so they couldn’t reach me.
Since they clearly desire me to discover the Bengals, I made up my recommendations to maintain quite compare to see if it is though-provoking to discover them on this plan and what I discovered became as soon as rather engaging.
One motive to love the underdogs on this spherical is on account of they both played on Saturday in the divisional spherical and teams that play on Saturday — which formula they salvage one additional day of rest — fetch gone 16-8 in the convention title spherical right thru the last 12 years. To add to that, no decrease than one team that played on Saturday in the divisional spherical has won regarded as one of many convention title games in 14 of the past 16 years, which formula it is extremely unlikely that the Rams and Chiefs both preserve finish.
The at some point soon advantage doesn’t sound love principal, but enticing take into myth it love this: Whereas the Chiefs had been busy having fun with a loopy game that went to beyond in style time on Sunday evening, the Bengals had been sitting spherical tweeting out SpongeBob SquarePants memes.
Even supposing the Bengals and 49ers will both be extra rested, they’ll be hitting the road this week, which positively is a drawback in the convention title spherical.
In six of the past eight years, the home team has won the NFC Championship Sport, whereas in the AFC, the home team has won SEVEN of the past eight convention title games (Advantage: Chiefs and Rams). For sure, that won’t if truth be told be an advantage for the Chiefs since they had been the finest AFC team to lose in that span.
All of these stats I enticing gave you had been if truth be told a diversion so I could per chance per chance per chance presumably fling rep my cell phone in my yard so I’m in a position to call my household and allow them to know who I’m picking. I couldn’t salvage a abet of them even though, so they’ll enticing fetch to search out out right here love all people else.
Let’s salvage to the picks.
Conference title game picks
(4) Cincinnati (12-7) at (2) Kansas City (14-5)
3 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Most modern Odds:
Kansas City Chiefs
-7
For the first time on account of the 1988 season, the Bengals are in the AFC Championship Sport. Even as you happen to are questioning how prolonged ago that became as soon as, let me set up it this contrivance: Ronald Reagan became as soon as serene president (for 12 extra days), Jessica Rabbit became as soon as regarded as as essentially the most enticing lady on earth (even supposing she wasn’t technically right) and Outback Steakhouse did no longer even exist yet. Strive to remember residing in a world with out Outback Steakhouse. That you just can no longer. It’s very unlikely. I indicate, the set else is there to fling as soon as you are in the mood for Australian meals at a household-friendly tag?
In the 33 years since that appearance, no longer principal has gone factual for the Bengals. For years, they’ve been the laughingstock of the NFL, enticing love Cincinnati chili has been the laughingstock of the nation, but let me recount you one thing, both are extraordinarily underrated.
The Bengals are so underrated that the oddsmakers in Vegas fetch made them a seven-point underdog for this game, which appears to be like to be quite loopy as soon as you fetch in recommendations that the Bengals beat the Chiefs earlier THIS MONTH. Succor on Jan. 2 (Week 17), the Bengals topped Kansas City 34-31 in a game the set Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards. Extra importantly, it became as soon as a game the set I predicted the actual final gain, which clearly formula that I will in all probability predict the actual final gain of the AFC title game.
The one say about rematches is that they in total assemble no longer work out so successfully for the team that lost the first game, no decrease than when a in style season rematch occurs in the convention title game.
Since 2014, there had been a total of 11 AFC or NFC title games which had been rematches from the in style season and in these 11 games, the team that won for the length of the in style season has gone 9-2 in the title game rematch. I ought to moreover point out that a form of two wins most efficient took disclose on account of the officiating crew made up our minds to no longer throw a cross interference flag on the Rams as soon as they beat the Saints in January 2019. So if we preserve finish that fluke game out, then the team that won in the in style season is 9-1 in the convention title game rematch, which is indubitably an advantage for the Bengals (and the 49ers for that matter, since they swept the Rams this year).
This game feels adore it has shootout written during it. Throughout the in style season, there had been most efficient seven teams in the NFL that surrendered extra than 248 cross yards per game and two of these seven teams are having fun with on this game, and I deem what I’m making an try to claim right here is that Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes would possibly per chance per chance per chance presumably both throw for 500 yards.
Since I’m fully anticipating both offenses to fling wild on Sunday, my discover is admittedly coming all of the style down to which protection I deem will play better and factual now and I deem that is the Bengals. The Bengals are better against the scamper, they’re better at getting sacks and even though the 2 secondaries are about even, the Chiefs are coping with a full injury this week with Tyrann Mathieu’s concussion.
Sooner than this postseason started, the Bengals had gone 31 years with out successful a playoff game and they ended that drought. They’d by no formula won a road playoff game in franchise history and they set up an finish to that. And now, they’ve a wager to salvage abet to the Easy Bowl for the first time in 33 years and the prediction right here is that they salvage it completed.
The discover: Bengals 34-31 over Chiefs.
File picking Bengals games this season: 14-5 straight up, 10-7-2 against the unfold
File picking Chiefs games this season: 13-6 straight up, 11-8 against the unfold
(6) San Francisco (12-7) at (4) L.A. Rams (14-5)
6: 30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Most modern Odds:
Los Angeles Rams
-3.5
For the first time in NFL history, the NFC title game is being played in the same stadium because the Easy Bowl, which formula the winner of Sunday’s game would possibly per chance per chance per chance presumably enticing camp out at SoFi Stadium for the subsequent two weeks in the occasion that they wanted to, even though now that I’m captivated with it, tenting out doubtlessly is no longer the finest formula to organize for a Easy Bowl.
Take care of the AFC Championship Sport, right here is a rematch, even though most Rams followers doubtlessly assemble no longer take into accout either of the games from this season, on account of in the occasion that they had been dapper, they at as soon as employed a hypnotherapist to lend a hand them repress the memories from both losses. In most cities, I’d assemble no longer fetch any knowing the set you would even rent a hypnotherapist, but Rams followers are in Los Angeles and likewise yow will discover someone to maintain anything else there for the factual amount of cash. Successfully, you most definitely can not rep a disclose that places chili on spaghetti. I deem most efficient Cincinnati does that.
Anyway, the 49ers are the underdog on this game even in the occasion that they’ve overwhelmed the Rams SIX STRAIGHT TIMES and that’s no longer a typo. The Rams haven’t overwhelmed the 49ers since 2018. As a matter of truth, since Week 6 of the 2019 season, the Rams fetch a document of 28-16 that breaks down love this:
- 0-6 against the 49ers
- 28-10 against all people else
Even supposing this game is being played in Los Angeles, I’m no longer sure the Rams are going to fetch any maintain of home-field advantage and that’s the reason on account of I’m rather sure 49ers followers outnumbered Rams followers roughly 700-to-1 the final time these two teams played in L.A. abet on Jan. 9.
As a matter of truth, 49ers followers had been so loud that Matthew Stafford had to make exercise of a SILENT COUNT for the length of the game, which I most efficient know on account of his wife, Kelly, published that files on a most modern podcast, which, by the style, is indubitably my popular podcast by an NFL quarterback’s wife.
The Rams are so taking into account 49ers followers taking on the stadium that they modified their ticket policy for the game. Even as you happen to fetch a zipper code that is outside the better Los Angeles home, then you can not comprise a ticket.
I assemble no longer reside in Los Angeles, but I did ancient to look “Beverly Hills 90210” and that zip code is in the L.A. home, so I deem that formula I’d qualify to seize a ticket.
After I leer at both teams, the one participant who I deem is going to create or ruin this game is Matthew Stafford. Sure, I could per chance per chance per chance presumably boom Jimmy Garoppolo, but then I could per chance per chance per chance presumably be lying to myself. The 49ers are a scamper-first team and as prolonged as they’ll scamper the ball, they’ve a wager to preserve finish no matter how Garoppolo plays. If Jimmy plays successfully, that is positively a plus, but even supposing he struggles, they’ll serene preserve finish. In Week 18, they beat the Rams 27-24 despite two interceptions from Garoppolo.
As for Stafford, two of his worst games of the year came against the 49ers. He threw two interceptions in both games and became as soon as sacked a total lot of cases in both games (he received sacked twice in the first game and five cases in the 2d game). The Rams are 0-3 this year when Stafford throws a total lot of interceptions AND will get sacked a total lot of cases in the same game.
If 49ers followers preserve finish over the stadium, that would possibly per chance per chance per chance presumably add even extra complications, on account of Stafford would possibly per chance per chance per chance presumably as soon as against be forced to make exercise of the silent depend, which would possibly per chance per chance per chance presumably result in additional sacks and additional mistakes. Imagine losing the NFC title game for your disclose stadium on account of your followers are outnumbered 700-to-1. If I had been worth $10 billion love Rams owner Stan Kroenke, I’d enticing comprise every ticket to the game and I’d no longer care if it intended having fun with in an empty stadium as prolonged as it kept 49ers followers out.
It’s no longer on the total that two division opponents meet in a convention title game, but it does happen. This is the eighth time since 1985 that two division opponents fetch played each and every assorted in a convention title game. In the earlier seven games, the team that won the 2d in style-season meeting has gone 6-1 in the playoff rematch (Advantage: 49ers).
Additionally since 1985, there had been three prior games the set one team swept a division rival in the in style season after which played them one more time in the convention title game. In all three cases, the team that swept the season-series ended up successful the third game (Advantage: 49ers).
These two teams fetch played 9 quarters against each and every assorted — two full games plus beyond in style time — and the Rams most efficient outscored the 49ers in TWO of these 9 quarters, which makes it finally feel love the 49ers wins weren’t flukes (Advantage: 49ers).
At any time when the Bengals had been in a Easy Bowl, they’ve ended up having fun with the 49ers and since I’m picking the Bengals to preserve finish this week, that leaves me with no preference right here.
The discover: 49ers 23-20 over Rams.
File picking 49ers games this season: 12-7 straight up, 11-8 against the unfold
File picking Rams games this season: 14-5 straight up, 10-9 against the unfold
Closing Week
Handiest discover: Closing week I predicted that the Bengals would come to their first AFC title game in 33 years by upsetting the Titans and bet what took disclose? The Bengals developed to their first AFC title game in 33 years by upsetting the Titans. Now, did I know that Ryan Tannehill became as soon as going to fetch a total meltdown and throw three interceptions? For sure I did. I salvage to look Ryan Tannehill play a week on account of I reside in Nashville and let me enticing boom, there became as soon as no probability he wasn’t going to meltdown. I became as soon as so sure it became as soon as going to happen that I literally wrote a instant paragraph about it when the guys over at Pickwatch asked me final week which QB I relied on the least in the divisional spherical.
John Breech
Now, I’m no longer asserting Ryan Tannehill is the finest motive they lost that game, OK, wait, if truth be told yes, I’m asserting that.
Worst discover: Over the past three years, there would possibly per chance be no team that has choked in the playoffs extra on the total than the Green Bay Packers, and yet, for some motive, I serene picked them to preserve finish final week. If there would possibly per chance be one say the Packers can not maintain, it is preserve finish full playoff games, and if there would possibly per chance be one say Aaron Rodgers can not maintain, it is preserve finish any playoff games against the 49ers. All of us knew the choke became as soon as coming. That being stated, the finest upside of choking in the divisional spherical for the Packers is that it formula they would possibly be able to not choke in the NFC Championship game for the third straight year, in disclose that is roughly a silver lining, factual?
Alright guys, except I resolve to maintain a Pro Bowl discover — and I doubtlessly won’t — I will be on a one-week hiatus, which formula you ought to circle Feb. 8 on your calendar (or recount Siri to residing a reminder), on account of that is when my Easy Bowl LVI discover will be rolling out. Even as you happen to can not wait that prolonged, then I counsel following me on Facebook, Twitter or even Instagram.
Even as you happen to love to fetch assemble no longer desire to wait unless Feb. 8, it is in all probability you’ll per chance signal for the day-to-day NFL newsletter that I write for CBSSports.com. Merely click this hyperlink and enter your e-mail after which BAM, I will be for your inbox five days per week.
Picks document
Straight up in divisional spherical: 2-2
SU overall in playoffs: 8-2
Against the unfold in divisional spherical: 3-1
ATS overall in playoffs: 6-4
Closing 2021 in style season document
Straight-up: 174-97-1 (Ranked 2d overall at CBSSports.com)
Against the unfold: 138-131-3
Which that it is in all probability you’ll per chance presumably presumably rep John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s no longer doing a form of things, he’s doubtlessly in his yard shopping for his cell phone on account of he forgot the set he buried it.
